Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio notional exposure vs. targets · Updated today
Portfolio Value
$1,000,000
Entered manually
Target Notional
$1,250,000
1.25× multiplier
Current Exposure
$1,418,900
114% of target
GTC Reserve Needed
$5,393
Put $994,607 in BIL
* Contracts needed estimated at current ETF price and default 20-delta strike. Click any row to open Trade Modeler.
Trade Modeler
Model risk & reward before placing at broker
Trade Inputs
STAND ASIDE · IV 18% · SPY at 18%
No new trades in this IV% regime. CSPs are acquisition substitutes only.
⚠ Risk Panel
Gross Premium
Downside Buffer
-Infinity%
Breakeven Price
$456.20
Breakeven Buffer
-Infinity%
Notional Exposure
$92,000
↗ Return Panel
Net Profit at Target
$570
GTC Buyback Price
$0.95/sh
Return on Notional
0.6%
Annualized Return
5.0%
ALLOCATION IMPACT · SPY
Current Exp.
$201,000
This Trade Adds
+$92,000
New Exposure
$293,000
Target: $312,500 ·
New Gap: $-19,500 (-6.2%)
Trade Journal
All open and closed positions · System of record
Open Positions
0
YTD Premium
Win Rate
—
Closed Trades
0
Performance Analytics
Completed trades only · Slice by any dimension
Total Premium
Options income
Available for BIL
$0
Portfolio value minus GTC reserve
Combined Yield
0.0%
On portfolio
Win Rate
—
Closed trades
Monthly Premium Income
Strategy vs. Benchmarks
RetirementWheel.ai
—
SPY (Total Return)
12.4%
60/40 Portfolio
7.8%
BIL (T-Bill only)
5.2%
YTD annualized returns. Log trades to see your strategy return.
Performance by Slice
| ETF | TRADES | WIN RATE | AVG DAYS HELD | AVG PREM./CONTRACT | ANN. RETURN | ASSIGN RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log and close trades to see performance slices. | ||||||
Stats
Trade behavior patterns · All completed trades
Avg Days Held
—
All closed trades
Assignment Rate
—
Of all closed trades
Avg IV at Entry
—
All trades
Trades / Month
—
Avg frequency
Avg Days Held by ETF
| ETF | AVG DAYS | VS DTE % | TRADES |
|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet | |||
Assignment Analysis by ETF
| ETF | ASSIGN RATE | AVG DELTA | COUNT |
|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet | |||
Stats by DTE Bucket
| DTE BUCKET | TRADES | AVG DAYS HELD | AVG PREMIUM | WIN RATE | ANN. RETURN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet | |||||
Preferences
Portfolio defaults · Per-ETF parameters · Email settings
Portfolio Defaults
Email Briefing
Per-ETF Baseline Parameters
| ETF | ALLOC % | NORMAL DTE | NORMAL DELTA | NORMAL CONTRACTS | IV LOW % | IV HIGH % | IV EXTREME % |
|---|
Portfolio Targets
Target ETF allocation · The model portfolio you wouldn't mind owning
7 / 7 slots used
Total Allocated
100%
✓ Fully allocated
ETFs in Portfolio
7
Tracked positions
Target Notional
$1,250,000
1.25× of portfolio
Allocation Visual
How this works: This is the balanced portfolio you'd be comfortable owning if assigned on all positions simultaneously.
The allocation % drives your notional targets on the Dashboard. Adjust any time — changes take effect immediately.
Assigned Positions
Long stock from wheel assignments · Sell covered calls to exit
Active Assignments
0
Long stock positions
Total Cost Basis
$0
Cash needed / in BIL
Calls Logged
0
Covered calls active
Calls Needed
0
Log covered call now
Strategy Guide
Wheel Strategy — Index/ETF Edition · Rules-Based Framework · Not Financial Advice
IV% REGIME QUICK REFERENCE
| IV% BAND | DELTA | DTE | SIZE | REGIME | TACTICAL RULE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – 25% | — | — | 0% | Stand Aside | No new premium-selling trades. Stand aside entirely. |
| 25 – 45% | 0.30 – 0.35 | 50 – 60d | 50% | Selective | Maintenance only. Favor SPY/TLT. Half size. Avoid new cycles. |
| 45 – 65% | 0.25 – 0.35 | 30 – 45d | 100% | Default Zone ✓ | Standard wheel trading. All rules apply normally. |
| 65 – 80% | 0.20 – 0.28 | 21 – 35d | 100 – 115% | Highest EV Zone | Best expected value. IV crush accelerates profit. 115% ceiling on one ETF only. |
| 80%+ | 0.15 – 0.22 | 14 – 21d | 50 – 75% | Stress Regime | De-risk first. Trade smaller or pass. Check VIX before entry. |
TICKER ADJUSTMENTS: Use lower end of delta ranges for IWM and USO · EFA needs IV% ≥ 45% before premium is attractive · SPY is safest choice when IV% > 80%
CORRELATION CLUSTERS
| CLUSTER | TICKERS | KEY NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| Equity Beta | SPY · IWM · EFA | One correlated risk bucket. Size across the cluster — not per ticker. |
| Duration | TLT | Most sensitive to FOMC, CPI, Jobs. Best IV crush candidate. |
| Metals | GLD · SLV | GLD preferred — tighter spreads. Verify fills on SLV before entering. |
| Energy | USO | Highest structural risk. Advanced/optional only. Lowest delta and size always. |
MACRO CATALYST PRIORITY
| EVENT | PRIMARY ETF | RULE |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC · CPI · Jobs | TLT | IV spikes into event, normalizes fast — best crush candidate. |
| OPEC | USO | Do not open new positions immediately before event. |
| Geopolitical | GLD · USO | Safe haven flows — monitor closely. |
| Any binary event | ALL | Never open new positions immediately before unless that IS the thesis. |
BAND-BY-BAND RULES
IV% 0–25 — STAND ASIDE
- • No new premium-selling trades of any kind
- • CSPs are acquisition substitutes only — not income trades
- • Existing covered calls: let expire rather than roll for poor premium
- • EFA: stand aside until IV% reaches 45% or above
IV% 25–45 — SELECTIVE
- • Maintenance band — avoid launching new wheel cycles
- • Use half size only
- • Favor SPY or TLT if trading at all
- • Keep names per cluster to a minimum
IV% 45–65 — DEFAULT WHEEL ZONE ✓
- • Default regime for systematic wheel trading
- • Close around 50% max profit OR near 21 DTE — whichever first
- • CSP roll rule: if 21 DTE passes without 50% profit → roll down and out
- • Delta defaults: SPY/EFA/GLD/TLT 0.28–0.30 · IWM/USO 0.25–0.28
IV% 65–80 — HIGHEST EV ZONE
- • Best expected-value zone — IV crush does the work
- • 115% sizing ceiling for ONE core ETF only when exposure is light
- • Do not run 100–115% across all names in same cluster simultaneously
- • TLT: prime IV crush candidate around FOMC and CPI
IV% 80+ — STRESS REGIME
- • Stress regime first — premium opportunity second
- • IWM and USO: cut to 50% size or skip entirely
- • Cross-check spot VIX before entering
- • Do not open CSPs on more than ONE equity cluster ETF at a time
- • Prefer closing over rolling if a trade stalls
- • Passing is always valid
✕ NEVER RULES — CSP
✕ Never size all correlated tickers as if they were independent — always cap at cluster level
✕ Never open new positions immediately before binary macro events
✕ Never roll indefinitely to avoid realizing a loss — rolling is management, not rescue
✕ Never treat IVR as your primary signal when it diverges from IV%
LOSS MANAGEMENT
Predefine max loss before entry — typically 1–2× credit received
If max loss is hit → close the trade. Max-loss rules supersede all roll rules.
Check macro calendar before every entry. Avoid FOMC · CPI · Jobs · OPEC unless that IS the thesis.
Rolling is management, not rescue. Never roll indefinitely.
COVERED CALL POST-ASSIGNMENT FRAMEWORK
CORE 4 — RUN THESE UNDER ANY CONDITIONS BEFORE SELLING A CALL
① What is the current IV% regime?
② How far is the ETF from my net cost basis?
③ Am I OK being called away at this strike?
④ Am I overexposed in this cluster, and is there a macro event nearby?
| IV% BAND | CC DELTA | CC DTE | SIZE | KEY IMPLICATION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – 25% | 0.20 – 0.25 | 45 – 60d | 100% if ≥ basis · 50–75% if below | Yield smoothing only. Expect low returns. Do not force trades. |
| 25 – 45% | 0.20 – 0.25 | 35 – 50d | 100% if ≥ basis · 50–75% if below | Modest — extend DTE. Consider waiting for better IV%. |
| 45 – 65% | 0.18 – 0.25 | 30 – 45d | 100% | Standard environment. Textbook CC execution. |
| 65 – 80% | 0.15 – 0.22 | 21 – 35d | 100% | IV still rich — shorter DTE viable. IV crush can accelerate profit. |
| 80%+ | 0.12 – 0.18 | 14 – 21d | 50 – 75% | Protect position first. Macro stress elevated — preserve shares and upside. |
SITUATION TABLE — STOCK PRICE VS NET COST BASIS
ETF above cost basis
Strike at or above current price. Normal IV%-band delta targets apply.
ETF up to 8% below basis
Strike above cost basis. Accept smaller credit. Use lower end of delta range.
ETF more than 8% below basis
Stop — reassess thesis. Stuck wheel rules only. Max delta 0.10–0.15.
✕ NEVER RULES — COVERED CALLS
✕ Never sell ATM or ITM covered calls just to "do something" on an underwater position
✕ Never treat rolling as a rescue plan — predefine max loss and honor it
✕ Never accidentally sell a CC below net cost basis — run the called away P&L calculation first
✕ Never open new CSPs in same cluster immediately after being assigned during 80%+ IV% regime
NET COST BASIS = Assignment Strike − All Premium Received ·
CALLED AWAY P&L = (CC Strike − Assignment Strike) + All Premium Collected ·
ANN. RETURN TARGET: 10–12% minimum in 45–80% IV% bands